11 Macroeconomic Themes for 2024

Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group identifies 11 macroeconomic trends we believe are likely to shape monetary policy and investment performance this year.

1. Record Global Elections and Geopolitical Instability Will Lift Economic Uncertainty
2. Technological Innovation and Competition Will Continue to Transform the Economy
3. Massive Treasury Issuance Will Continue to Weigh on Rates and Crowd Out Other Issuers
4. The End of the ‘Free Money’ Era Will Burst Lingering Asset Price Bubbles
5. Commercial Real Estate Stress Will Intensify and Spill Over to Small Banks
6. Private Credit Will Cannibalize Banks' Role in Leveraged Credit Further
7. Resilience Gives Way to Bifurcation
8. Negative Money Supply Growth and Draining of RRP Are Key Risks and May Usher in Deflation
9. Soft Landing Hopes Will Give Way to (Mild) Recession
10. Fed Easing Cycle Will Drive Long-End Rates Lower Than Anticipated
11. Out of Chaos Comes Opportunity in Fixed Income

Important Notices and Disclosures

This material is distributed or presented for informational or educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, or as investing advice of any kind. This material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The content contained herein is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.

This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. No part of this material may be reproduced or referred to in any form, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.

Forward Looking Statements. This discussion material contains forward-looking statements, which give current expectations of market activities and market performance. Any or all forward-looking statements in this material may turn out to be incorrect. They can be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. Although the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements contained herein are believed to be reasonable, any of the assumptions could be inaccurate and, therefore, there can be no assurances that the forward-looking statements included in this discussion material will prove to be accurate. In light of the significant uncertainties inherent in the forward-looking statements included herein, the inclusion of such information should not be regarded as a representation that the objectives and plans discussed herein will be achieved. Further, no person undertakes any obligation to revise such forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in fixed-income instruments are subject to the possibility that interest rates could rise, causing their values to decline. High yield and unrated debt securities are at a greater risk of default than investment grade bonds and may be less liquid, which may increase volatility.

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VIDEOS AND PODCASTS

 

Are Fixed-Income Investors Being Compensated for the Risks They Are Taking?

Maria Giraldo, Investment Strategist for Guggenheim Investments, joins Asset TV’s Fixed Income Masterclass.

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Are Fixed-Income Investors Being Compensated for the Risks They Are Taking?

 

Macro Markets Podcast Episode 60: Post-FOMC & Post-Election Analysis and Outlook

Steve Brown, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, joins Macro Markets to discuss portfolio strategy and our outlook following the U.S. election and the Fed’s most recent rate cut.

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Macro Markets Podcast: Episode #60