/institutional/perspectives/sector-views/q4-2024-fixed-income-sector-views

Fourth Quarter 2024 Fixed-Income Sector Views

A good time for active fixed-income management.

November 19, 2024


Fixed-Income Sector Views

Fourth Quarter 2024

At face value, a pro-tax cut, anti-regulation policy would skew growth and inflation higher, but immigration, tariffs, and the potential for trade wars or other geopolitical escalation are potential headwinds. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will continue to recalibrate policy closer to neutral in the coming quarters. All-in yields remain attractive, particularly given the backup since September. We prefer higher quality credit, which tends to perform well in easing cycles and times of moderating growth, and structured products, which typically offer excess yield over similarly rated corporates and wider spreads relative to fundamental risk. In this environment, credit and sector selection are critical—and an advantage for actively managed fixed-income portfolios.

Important Notices and Disclosures

Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy or, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. In general, the value of a fixed-income security falls when interest rates rise and rises when interest rates fall. Longer term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate changes and subject to greater volatility than those with shorter maturities. During periods of declining rates, the interest rates on floating rate securities generally reset downward and their value is unlikely to rise to the same extent as comparable fixed rate securities. High yield and unrated debt securities are at a greater risk of default than investment grade bonds and may be less liquid, which may increase volatility. Investors in asset-backed securities, including collateralized loan obligations (“CLOs”), generally receive payments that are part interest and part return of principal. These payments may vary based on the rate loans are repaid. Some asset-backed securities may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity and valuation risk. CLOs bear similar risks to investing in loans directly, such as credit, interest rate, counterparty, prepayment, liquidity, and valuation risks. Loans are often below investment grade, may be unrated, and typically offer a fixed or floating interest rate. Private debt investments are generally considered illiquid and not quoted on any exchange; thus they are difficult to value. The process of valuing investments for which reliable market quotations are not available is based on inherent uncertainties and may not be accurate. Further, the level of discretion used by an investment manager to value private debt securities could lead to conflicts of interest.

There is no guarantee that an active manager's views will produce the desired results or expected returns, which may lead to underperformance. Actively managed investments generally charge higher fees than passive strategies, which could affect performance. In addition, active and frequent trading that can accompany active management, also called "high turnover," may lead to higher brokerage costs and have a negative impact on performance. Further, active and frequent trading may lead to adverse tax consequences.

This material is distributed or presented for informational or educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, or as investing advice of any kind. This material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The content contained herein is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.

This material contains opinions of the author, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this material may be reproduced or referred to in any form, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2024, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC is an affiliate of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. For information, call 800.345.7999 or 800.820.0888.

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FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

October 10, 2024

Fed Rate Cuts Are Positive for Leveraged Credit (With a Few Caveats)

Effects of rate cuts on high yield bonds may be mixed.

September 26, 2024

Third Quarter 2024 Quarterly Macro Themes

Research spotlight on what’s next.

May 16, 2024

The Economic Cycle Isn’t Dead, Merely Delayed… And That’s Good for Bonds

Navigating an economic cycle where old patterns don’t seem to apply.


VIDEOS AND PODCASTS

Are Fixed-Income Investors Being Compensated for the Risks They Are Taking? 

Are Fixed-Income Investors Being Compensated for the Risks They Are Taking?

Maria Giraldo, Investment Strategist for Guggenheim Investments, joins Asset TV’s Fixed Income Masterclass.

Macro Markets Podcast 

Macro Markets Podcast Episode 59: Finding Value Now in ABS, MBS, and CLOs (Plus Listener Mail)

Karthik Narayanan, Head of Structured Credit, joins Macro Markets to discuss what makes the sector an important component of our actively managed fixed-income portfolios and where we are finding value now.







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Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, and GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC.