/perspectives/macroeconomic-research/11-macroeconomic-themes-for-2024

11 Macroeconomic Themes for 2024

11 trends that will shape credit markets in 2024.

January 11, 2024


Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group identifies 11 macroeconomic trends we believe are likely to shape monetary policy and investment performance this year.

  1. Record Global Elections and Geopolitical Instability Will Lift Economic Uncertainty
  2. Technological Innovation and Competition Will Continue to Transform the Economy
  3. Massive Treasury Issuance Will Continue to Weigh on Rates and Crowd Out Other Issuers
  4. The End of the ‘Free Money’ Era Will Burst Lingering Asset Price Bubbles
  5. Commercial Real Estate Stress Will Intensify and Spill Over to Small Banks
  6. Private Credit Will Cannibalize Banks' Role in Leveraged Credit Further
  7. Resilience Gives Way to Bifurcation
  8. Negative Money Supply Growth and Draining of RRP Are Key Risks and May Usher in Deflation
  9. Soft Landing Hopes Will Give Way to (Mild) Recession
  10. Fed Easing Cycle Will Drive Long-End Rates Lower Than Anticipated
  11. Out of Chaos Comes Opportunity in Fixed Income
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Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in fixed-income instruments are subject to the possibility that interest rates could rise, causing their values to decline. High yield and unrated debt securities are at a greater risk of default than investment grade bonds and may be less liquid, which may increase volatility.

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FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

April 04, 2024

2024 Election Uncertainty Could Drive Fixed-Income Outperformance

Rising economic policy and geopolitical uncertainty may favor higher quality fixed income in this election year.

March 27, 2024

First Quarter 2024 Quarterly Macro Themes

Research spotlight on what’s next.

March 26, 2024

Learning from Turning Points in Monetary Policy

The Case for Moving Into Higher Quality Fixed Income (and out of Money Markets and Equities) While the Fed Is Paused… and Ahead of Coming Rate Cuts.


VIDEOS AND PODCASTS

Are Fixed-Income Investors Being Compensated for the Risks They Are Taking? 

Are Fixed-Income Investors Being Compensated for the Risks They Are Taking?

Maria Giraldo, Investment Strategist for Guggenheim Investments, joins Asset TV’s Fixed Income Masterclass.

Macro Markets Podcast 

Macro Markets Podcast Episode 51: What's Holding Up Inflation…And Other Macro Themes

Matt Bush and Maria Giraldo join the Macro Markets podcast to discuss our newly published Quarterly Macro Themes for 1Q 2024.







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